My rule of thumb for analyzing an argument was anticipated by Wiio1 in the late 70′s. My argument: The likelihood of the conclusion of an argument being true is the product of the likelihoods of each statement used in reaching that conclusion being true. Wiio’s conclusion from an inspection of each statement takes this my [...]

I’ve been thinking over the past month more about experience, permanence and regrets. The conventional wisdom is that in a person’s life, they make mistakes when they are young, which they regret, learn from and never do again. This sounds great to me. Let’s encourage everyone to make as many mistakes as possible, then they [...]

In my previous rule of thumb for getting to your destination quickly, I recommended that you take the first available turn. Here is a rule for selecting when confronted with equivalent two turns, Keep going the way you were going. Since this situation may depend entirely on the boundary conditions, here is the example that [...]

For some time I’ve had a post in the queue on probability as tool for knowing. There were essentially two points, both of which pertained to sequence of facts required to reach a conclusion. 1) If your conjecture depends on a number of highly improbable events, it is unlikely to be true. 2) If your [...]

Since I added geocodes to the blog I have been tracking a Blogdigger feed of blog postings near me. This is an interesting way to read. I come across many things that I wouldn’t otherwise. For instance, Rick at News You Can Bruise has recently visited the Monterey Bay Aquarium. He posts his annoyance over [...]

Surprisingly regularly in conversation with a doctor, they will mention that they know someone — cousin’s seem to be prevalent — who had or almost had a bad outcome because they didn’t do what the doctor is arguing for right now. This someone didn’t go to the hospital, didn’t follow the advice you are being [...]

At a social gathering yesterday, CL recounted an experience she had while in the US Air Force. She was stationed at a base base (I can’t recall which one, maybe Castle?) that was part of the Strategic Air Command. They were under strict orders to respond to any and all questions about the presence of [...]

Are you more likely to die if you do what you are told? Wired has a story from Gary Wolf about a report from the National Institute on Standards and Technology called Occupant Behavior, Egress, and Emergency Communications. The whole report doesn’t appear to be on line and the wtc.nist.gov site is down, so I [...]

These are ways of knowing, but only in the negative. In other words, don’t fall for them. But first I have to tell you a story. When I was 15, I went to Italy for spring break with my Latin class. If that sounds nerdy to you, congratulations, you’re right. I was a nerd. Nerdiness [...]

This is a pet peeve of mine. Clockwise depends on your point of view. If you tell me that you rode your bike clockwise around Lake Tahoe, starting from South Lake Tahoe, I don’t know whether you went along the east shore from North to South or vice-versa. It depends on your point of view. [...]