For some time I’ve had a post in the queue on probability as tool for knowing. There were essentially two points, both of which pertained to sequence of facts required to reach a conclusion. 1) If your conjecture depends on a number of highly improbable events, it is unlikely to be true. 2) If your [...]

Since I added geocodes to the blog I have been tracking a Blogdigger feed of blog postings near me. This is an interesting way to read. I come across many things that I wouldn’t otherwise.
For instance, Rick at News You Can Bruise has recently visited the Monterey Bay Aquarium. He posts his annoyance over the [...]

Surprisingly regularly in conversation with a doctor, they will mention that they know someone — cousin’s seem to be prevalent — who had or almost had a bad outcome because they didn’t do what the doctor is arguing for right now. This someone didn’t go to the hospital, didn’t follow the advice you are being [...]

At a social gathering yesterday, CL recounted an experience she had while in the US Air Force. She was stationed at a base base (I can’t recall which one, maybe Castle?) that was part of the Strategic Air Command. They were under strict orders to respond to any and all questions about the presence of [...]

Are you more likely to die if you do what you are told?
Wired has a story from Gary Wolf about a report from the National Institute on Standards and Technology called Occupant Behavior, Egress, and Emergency Communications. The whole report doesn’t appear to be on line and the wtc.nist.gov site is down, so I looked [...]

These are ways of knowing, but only in the negative. In other words, don’t fall for them.
But first I have to tell you a story.
When I was 15, I went to Italy for spring break with my Latin class. If that sounds nerdy to you, congratulations, you’re right. I was a nerd. Nerdiness is [...]

This is a pet peeve of mine.
Clockwise depends on your point of view.
If you tell me that you rode your bike clockwise around Lake Tahoe, starting from South Lake Tahoe, I don’t know whether you went along the east shore from North to South or vice-versa. It depends on your point of view. Are you [...]

This rule of thumb applies to the simplest everyday decision: which way should I go if I am in a hurry to reach my destination?
Take the first available turn.
Easiest example: You are on the corner of a city sidewalk, at an intersection controlled by a traffic signal, headed for some destination on the catty-corner block. [...]

Here is a principle I use all the time.
The likelihood of the conclusion of an argument being true is the product of the likelihoods of each statement used in reaching that conclusion being true.
When someone is making an argument to me I assume that each statement of their argument stands alone but the statements are [...]

When you buy socks, always buy two identical pairs of socks.
This rule applies to those of us who lose our socks. If you always wear each pair out at the heal or toe (and don’t know how to darn) then get another rule.
Why it works for me. I buy two pair, call them pair A [...]